The scenario method is a well-established foresight methodology to support medium to long-term planning in companies, industries and on a policy level. Scenarios are often used to support strategic planning and provide the basis for other methods, for example the development of roadmaps or action plans. In our 2050 foresight exercise, we have asked the question ‘What can conceivably happen?’ by following a strict sequence of steps that identifies the key elements of a system and projects how these elements will evolve collectively.
The advantage of the scenario method is that it allows for multiple alternative but believable futures. Even if it is not clear what the future will look like in a couple of years, it is possible to take actions today to support desirable futures or to safeguard against the less desirable ones. Within the INTRAW project a process consisting of 5 steps was applied to the development of the three final scenarios, guided and moderated by the Competence Center R&D Management of Fraunhofer IAO. Based on this process, three final scenarios for "The World of Raw Materials 2050" were developed based on a total number of 96 influence factors, 23 descriptors, 57 projections and 23 raw scenarios:
- Scenario 1: Sustainability Alliance
A new generation puts sustainability above everything else to keep deposits for future generations.
- Scenario 2: Unlimited Trade
Increased global consumption leads to raw materials growth.
- Scenario 3: National Walls
Economic standstill gives rise to nationalist politicians and protectionist measures.
The scenarios "The World of Raw Materials 2050" that were developed in the context of the INTRAW project are freely available for further usage. The links to the main documents and a detailed description of each of the scenarios is shown below. The "descriptor's catalogue" with more information on the influence factors as well as their future projections is available on request and please do not hesitate to contact us in case you need support to adapt the scenarios for a specific usage or if you need professional moderation for taking benefit of the scenarios in the context of your strategy development process.